It’s technically the offseason, but it never really feels like one. There’s always something to break down, and this year is no different. Simon is literally in the middle of moving houses, living in transition, and yet we’re still locked in on football. That’s the sport. It doesn’t stop, and neither do we.
Next week we’ve got Bill Barnwell joining us to talk about player movement, rankings, and what could shake up rosters. But this week, we’re diving into season win totals – real numbers that are already on the board before free agency and the draft even hit full speed.
A quick Browns reset
We had a listener email us and ask about the Cleveland Browns, and it forced a little self-reflection. We previously mentioned them as a long-shot Super Bowl dark horse at a massive number. Now, staring at a 6.5 win total, the under actually jumps off the page.
The original case for Cleveland was simple: at triple-digit Super Bowl odds, if Deshaun Watson ever looked like himself again, there was value. But that’s a massive if. The market is clearly skeptical, and with coaching changes and uncertainty on defense, there’s no urgency to bet the over on Cleveland’s win total. Patience is key there.
Ten teams jump out with a win total set at 10.5
Hard Rock Bet posted a cluster of teams at 10.5 wins: Baltimore, Buffalo, Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, the Chargers, Rams, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Seattle.
The goal right now isn’t to fire blindly. It’s to identify early mispricing, understand where uncertainty creates opportunity, and decide where to pass because there’s simply too much we don’t know yet.
Let’s break them down.
Baltimore Ravens (o/u 10.5) – Too many question marks
We both landed on the under here.
There are too many unknowns. Coaching adjustments. Lamar Jackson’s health and long-term durability. Defensive structure. If Lamar plays a full season at full strength, the over probably cashes. But that hasn’t been the recent trend. Add in a tough division and a defensive outlook that still needs clarity, and the under is the safer position at this stage.
Buffalo Bills (o/u 10.5) – Early value on the over
This one stands out to us.
Josh Allen is still Josh Allen. The offensive direction under Joe Brady looks right – more balance, smarter ball protection. Last year felt like a “down” year by their standards, and 10.5 feels light for a team with that quarterback in that division.
When you’re looking at facing the Jets and Dolphins four times and projecting baseline wins, it’s not hard to map a path past 10.5. This number feels like it could move north as the season approaches.
Detroit Lions (o/u 10.5) – Betting that the window has closed
We both went under here, and this is one of our stronger convictions.
NFL windows close quickly. Detroit’s offensive line concerns are real: retirements, injuries, and roster turnover. If Jared Goff doesn’t have elite protection, everything tightens up. In a competitive NFC North with Green Bay ascending and the Bears improving, 10.5 is a heavy lift.
Plus money on the under only makes it more attractive.
Green Bay Packers (o/u 10.5) – Health is everything
We both like the over on Green Bay.
Injuries crushed the Packers late last year. With better health, the infrastructure is there: coaching stability, quarterback development, strong offensive line play. In a division where we’re already fading Detroit, Green Bay profiles as the most stable long-term bet.
Kansas City Chiefs (o/u 10.5) – Wait for clarity
We both lean under for now, but with a giant caveat.
Everything revolves around Patrick Mahomes’ health and availability. If there’s any scenario where he misses early-season games, that drastically alters the math. There’s no urgency to bet the over in March without clarity.
This is a number to monitor, not chase blindly.
Chargers (o/u 10.5) vs. Broncos (o/u 9.5) – The real value in the division
The Chargers at 10.5 feel like a team the market expects to rebound. But there are still too many unanswered questions about durability and consistency to force a play.
The more interesting number in the division is Denver at 9.5.
That stands out as potentially mispriced. Strong offensive line, a quarterback improving year over year, and a motivated team coming off a deep playoff run. Early numbers like this are often posted to see how professionals react, and this one feels vulnerable to upward movement.
Los Angeles Rams (o/u 10.5) – Paying for perfection twice
We loved the Rams last year, but this time we’re leaning under.
Last season felt like everything aligning perfectly. Matthew Stafford delivered a career-best performance, and the team capitalized. Asking for a repeat – both in performance and health – is aggressive. The coach and quarterback are elite, but this feels priced near the ceiling.
Philadelphia Eagles (o/u 10.5) – The floor is high
We both lean over here.
Even if Philadelphia takes a step back, the roster construction and talent suggest a floor near the number. If everything clicks, this is a 12 or 13-win team. If there’s internal noise or regression, it still likely hovers in double-digit territory.
At 10.5, the over feels more natural than the under.
San Francisco 49ers (o/u 10.5) – Health and protection questions
This was our first split.
There’s a clear path to the over if San Francisco stays healthy. But that’s the problem – staying healthy hasn’t been this team’s strength. The offensive line outlook, especially if key pieces depart, matters significantly for Brock Purdy. He’s not built to absorb constant pressure. Protection will dictate everything.
Seattle Seahawks (o/u 10.5) – Super Bowl hangover?
We split again.
One side of the argument leans into defensive dominance carrying the team. An elite defense can bank wins even when quarterback play isn’t perfect. If the defense is truly that strong, the path to 11 wins exists.
The counterargument is regression. Divisions that overachieve often normalize. Paying everyone after a Super Bowl run complicates roster continuity. And sustained success without a generational quarterback is difficult.
This one may come down to how much weight you give to defensive stability versus historical regression trends.
Chad’s Choice: Carolina Panthers Over 6.5
The Panthers currently have a win total of 6.5 in the NFC South.
The division doesn’t feature an overwhelming powerhouse. Carolina’s defense improved last year. The coach is trusted. Bryce Young has shown late-game resilience in two straight seasons.
In a competitive but not dominant division, over 6.5 is more than appealing.
There was definitely some pushback from Simon – it could be a trap. But sometimes you lean into the number that aligns with your read and accept the risk.
Panthers over 6.5 wins in 2026 is officially Chad’s Choice.
Sharp or Square: NFL Win Total Leans (Part 1)
- Carolina Panthers Over 6.5 Wins (Chad’s Choice)
- Baltimore Ravens Under 10.5 Wins
- Buffalo Bills Over 10.5 Wins
- Detroit Lions Under 10.5 Wins
- Green Bay Packers Over 10.5 Wins
- Kansas City Chiefs Under 10.5 Wins (pending Mahomes status)
- LA Rams Under 10.5 Wins
- Philadelphia Eagles Over 10.5 Wins
- Denver Broncos Over 9.5 Wins
Football never really stops
Even in late February, on a weekend trip with 20+ friends, the conversation inevitably turns to football. At dinner. By the pool. Late at night. It’s year-round. It’s cultural. It’s constant.
That’s part of why these early numbers matter: because we’re always thinking about the NFL.
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